Global Cotton Output Projected to Decline as Crops Shrink in India and the US

Global cotton production in the 2026/27 season is projected to fall by nearly 500,000 bales to a total of 117.5 million bales, according to a monthly report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday. Each bale is measured at 480 lbs. The overall decline is driven by smaller crops in India, the United States, and Turkey, which outweighed production gains seen in China and Australia.

India, the world's second-largest cotton producer, experienced a downward revision of 500,000 bales, bringing its projected output down to 23.5 million bales for the season. According to the USDA report, this reduction was primarily driven by unfavorable weather conditions. Meanwhile, production in the United States fell by 267,000 bales to reach 13.18 million bales.

Conversely, China, the world's largest cotton producer, saw its production estimate raised by 500,000 bales to 34 million bales, supported by higher yields. Production in Brazil, which remains the world's top exporter of the commodity, remained unchanged at 19 million bales.

On the trade and export front, global exports were raised by more than 100,000 bales to reach 44.8 million bales. This increase was driven by higher shipments coming from the Ivory Coast and Egypt. Brazil is forecasted to export 16 million bales, the United States is expected to ship 12.3 million bales, and Australia's export forecast holds steady at 4.5 million bales.

In terms of imports and consumption, Turkey's imports were lifted by 300,000 bales to 5.3 million bales due to its lower domestic production. This adjustment offset a 200,000-bale reduction in imports for Bangladesh, which was attributed to weaker local consumption. Overall, global cotton consumption was lowered by more than 300,000 bales to 122.7 million bales for the season.

"The latest USDA projections highlight the vulnerability of agricultural supply chains to weather patterns, particularly in major producing nations like India and the US. For businesses operating in the textile and apparel sectors, fluctuations in raw material yields and global consumption figures directly impact input costs and inventory planning. Stakeholders must closely monitor these international crop reports to navigate pricing volatility and manage procurement strategies effectively." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes