Gold and Silver Prices Rise Over Past Week as Markets Eye Global Inflation and US-Iran Tensions

Precious metals recorded significant gains over the past week on both domestic and international exchanges, even as market analysts anticipate continued pressure ahead. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery climbed by Rs 3,682, or nearly 3 percent, to close at Rs 1.42 lakh per 10 grams. Similarly, silver futures rose by Rs 5,655, or 3.15 percent, settling at Rs 1.84 lakh per kilogram.

In international markets, Comex gold futures for December delivery advanced USD 176, or 4.5 percent, during the week to close at USD 4,074.9 per ounce. Silver gained USD 2.6, or 5.4 percent, to settle at USD 51.94 per ounce.

According to market analysts, bullion prices initially faced headwinds due to stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data and improving consumer sentiment, which strengthened the dollar and Treasury yields. However, prices rallied mid-week following the US midterm election outcome that showed Democrats securing wins in both the Senate and the House over the Republicans. Additional support came from bargain buying at lower levels, short-covering, and safe-haven demand triggered by a decline in AI, data center, and technology stocks in global markets, particularly in the US. Despite these mid-week gains, bullion futures faced selling pressure toward the end of the week, with prices correcting slightly.

Looking ahead, bullion prices are expected to remain under pressure as investors track key economic indicators and geopolitical events. The upcoming week will focus heavily on inflation prints from China, the US, Germany, Japan, and India. Market participants will also monitor speeches by Federal Reserve officials, US employment data, and crude oil price movements. Chinese economic indicators will remain crucial for industrial metals.

Geopolitical tensions will continue to act as a primary market driver. US President Donald Trump confirmed fresh military strikes on Iran while asserting that Washington had made progress in negotiations with Tehran. Investors will closely track progress in peace negotiations between the US and Iran, alongside Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

On the domestic front, the commodities market will remain closed during the morning session on Tuesday due to Diwali-Balipratipada. Trading activity is expected to see moderate fluctuations, influenced by global cues, currency movements, inflation trends, and festive demand.

"The recent movement in gold and silver highlights how macroeconomic factors and geopolitical uncertainty directly influence commodity markets. For businesses and investors, tracking global inflation data, currency fluctuations, and central bank commentary is critical for risk management. While safe-haven demand provides short-term support, market participants must maintain a balanced approach as external variables like energy prices and international trade negotiations continue to drive volatility in the precious metals sector." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes