IMD and Global Models Indicate Continued Rainfall and Potential Storm Activity Across Southern Peninsula

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across several regions of South India, while global weather models indicate the possibility of renewed storm development over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. According to forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and global models, activity in both basins could reach another peak, maintaining wet conditions across the South Peninsula through Wednesday, November 18.

Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal for a multi-day period. Keralam and Mahe are also forecasted to receive isolated heavy rain over the weekend, accompanied by strong surface winds over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam. Additionally, regions including Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep, and Telangana are in line for varying spells of scattered or isolated rain and thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds.

Meteorological offices are monitoring atmospheric conditions across both basins. While the IMD has not ruled out the formation of a depression or cyclone, international forecasting bodies have assigned specific probabilities to future storm systems. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated a 20 to 40 per cent probability for a strong system over the Bay of Bengal. Meanwhile, Google DeepMind's storm outlook estimates a 53 per cent chance of a storm developing that could rank among the three strongest systems over the North Indian Ocean in 2026.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is currently tracking three separate areas of potential storm development. These include the south-east and south-west regions near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Lakshadweep Sea west of Sri Lanka, and the south-west Arabian Sea near the Lakshadweep Islands. The IMD has also identified an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the south-east Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast, alongside the potential formation of another circulation over the south-east Bay and adjoining Andaman Sea.

Adding to these developments, an active pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently positioned over the Bay of Bengal. This eastward-moving band of tropical atmospheric activity is providing a boost to convection and cyclogenesis, creating favorable conditions for the formation of depressions over both the Bay and the Arabian Sea through the period ending November 18.

"Adverse weather conditions and prolonged spells of heavy rainfall across the Southern Peninsula can cause logistical disruptions, impact regional supply chains, and affect business continuity in key agricultural and coastal hubs. Businesses operating in these regions must incorporate robust contingency planning and risk management frameworks to mitigate the operational impacts of potential tropical storms and severe weather events." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes