China's proposed export controls on solar tech could impact India's upstream manufacturing plans

China’s recent move to restrict exports of critical solar technologies could impact the Indian solar industry’s ambition to establish a vertically integrated domestic supply chain. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has proposed export controls on 12 next-gen solar manufacturing technologies, including partial restrictions on popular cell technologies and complete bans on advanced equipment for upstream components like wafers and polysilicon. The proposal is currently open for industry consultation.

Industry participants indicate that an immediate disruption to current module production is unlikely. Vinay Rastogi, Chief Business Officer and Director at Premier Energies, expects the restrictions to be graded based on technology advancement, with newer, higher-efficiency technologies facing stricter curbs.

"We do not expect any restriction on the existing businesses and can operate cell and production lines by importing wafers. There is no kind of short-term impact on the sector even going forward two to three years," Rastogi said, adding that the impact will be felt when newer technologies become commercialized.

However, the proposed controls could present challenges for Indian module manufacturers looking to enter upstream segments such as cells, ingots, wafers, and polysilicon. Ingots are expected to face particular pressure, as China maintains a near-monopoly over both final production and the equipment used to manufacture them.

Arulkumar Shanmugasundram, CEO and Managing Director of SWELECT Energy Systems, noted that while non-Chinese suppliers exist for cells, wafers, and polysilicon, ingot technology is sensitive and could experience a significant impact. He suggested that export restrictions might eventually force global equipment suppliers, who manufacture in China, to develop alternative manufacturing ecosystems in locations like India.

Amit Manohar, Secretary General of The Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA), highlighted that countries such as Germany, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the United States offer valuable expertise in equipment, materials, and advanced cell processes. Indian manufacturers are positioned to expand these collaborations while strengthening domestic capabilities, according to Manohar.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) earlier this year extended mandatory sourcing requirements from the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers to include ingots and wafers, ensuring that all solar projects meet domestic manufacturing standards starting from the February 2028 deadline. Rastogi noted that the exact impact of China's proposed export ban on this deadline remains unclear at present.

Anujesh Dwivedi, Partner at Deloitte India, suggested that a blanket ban is not anticipated and imports may still be possible through necessary licenses, though equipment lead times could become lengthier. He added that the scaleup of India’s domestic ecosystem will depend on whether required supplies for restricted goods have already been secured.

"China's proposed export controls highlight the urgent need for India to accelerate its domestic capabilities in advanced upstream solar manufacturing, particularly for sensitive components like ingots and wafers. While short-term production remains secure, hardware dependency poses long-term risks to local scaling. Diversifying technology partnerships with alternative global suppliers will be crucial for Indian manufacturers to meet mandatory sourcing deadlines and build a resilient, self-sustaining solar ecosystem." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes