Monsoon Surge Across East India and Nepal Raises Flood and Landslide Risks

A heavy to very heavy spell of rain is forecast for the next two to three days across Nepal and the contiguous regions of Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh, according to the Beijing Centre of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). This weather activity follows heavy rainfall that lashed parts of West Uttar Pradesh through Thursday and Friday morning.

The low-pressure area over north-east Uttar Pradesh, which has driven monsoon conditions across the region, is beginning to weaken. Simultaneously, a fresh low-pressure system is expected to form over the north-west Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal-north Odisha coasts by Saturday, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Meteorological experts note that two low-pressure systems operating in such close proximity is an unusual arrangement, occurring when monsoon circulation and relative system strengths allow for coexistence.

The existing low-pressure system continues to draw attention from the WMO's Beijing centre due to its influence on rainfall along the Himalayan foothills and Nepal. The incoming system is projected to spread isolated heavy rain across parts of North-East India while strengthening rainfall over North-West India. Some of these rain bands are expected to impact Nepal, where persistent rainfall over the past 10 days has left the ground saturated.

Bagmati province in Nepal is expected to experience frequent rain, with orographic lifting along the southern Himalayan foothills generating localised heavy downpours. These conditions raise the prospect of secondary hazards, including flash floods, landslides, and debris flows, particularly in areas like the Rasuwa and Nuwakot districts within Bagmati that were previously affected by severe flooding along the Lhende Khola-Bhote Koshi system.

Across India, heavy to very heavy rain was recorded through Friday morning in parts of West Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh. Similar conditions, ranging from heavy to very heavy downpours, were reported in the hills and plains of West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, West Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.

The monsoon trough currently runs from Amritsar through Dehradun, Kheri, the centre of the low over north-east Uttar Pradesh, and onward to Madhupur and Bankura before bending eastwards into the north-east Bay. This configuration has kept the western end of the trough tucked near the Himalayan foothills, contributing to subdued monsoon activity across other parts of the country.

The developing low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is expected to shift the rainfall focus eastwards. Odisha may receive isolated extremely heavy rain on Sunday, while West Bengal faces heavy rain through the weekend. Additionally, Jharkhand and Bihar are expected to experience isolated heavy rain over a three-day period starting Saturday.

"Logistics, supply chain networks, and regional businesses operating across East India and the Himalayan foothills must closely monitor these weather alerts. Unpredictable monsoon surges and secondary hazards like flash floods can severely disrupt transport routes, agricultural output, and local commerce. Companies with regional dependencies should factor these meteorological risks into their operational planning to mitigate potential economic losses." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes