GDP Data, Crude Oil Prices, and US Employment Reports to Guide Markets This Week, Say Analysts

Stock market trading sentiment this week is expected to be largely guided by the release of domestic GDP data, crude oil prices, and the US non-farm payrolls report, according to market analysts. In addition to these primary factors, upcoming macroeconomic data releases, auto sales numbers, and trading activity by foreign investors will continue to influence market movements.

Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted that the coming week will be eventful for investors. India's Q1 FY27 GDP data is scheduled for release on August 31. Investors will also monitor August manufacturing and services PMI readings, GST collections, foreign exchange reserves, and the movement of the rupee.

On the global front, US employment data remains a crucial trigger. The August non-farm payrolls report is scheduled for release on September 4. Mishra stated that this outcome could significantly influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's September policy decision, the US dollar, Treasury yields, and emerging-market fund flows.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused ₹30,919 crore into Indian equities during August, marking their second consecutive month of net buying.

Ponmudi R, CEO of wealth tech firm Enrich Money, pointed out that first-quarter GDP data will serve as an important factor for broader risk sentiment. It will offer clarity on domestic growth against the backdrop of elevated energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have impacted global supply lines and commodity prices.

Furthermore, US monetary policy has emerged as a dominant global catalyst following Federal Reserve remarks at Jackson Hole. Markets will review the August jobs report and upcoming inflation readings to determine whether expectations of a September rate hike hold or ease.

Market indices experienced a minor pullback in the previous trading week. The BSE benchmark Sensex declined by 276.32 points, or 0.35 percent, while the NSE Nifty dipped by 76.35 points, or 0.31 percent.

Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder and CEO of HST Wealth, added that India's first-quarter GDP figures will provide insights into the domestic growth trajectory, while the US non-farm payrolls report will shape global sentiment as investors reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations.

"The upcoming week is critical for both domestic and global market participants as macroeconomic indicators take center stage. With India's Q1 FY27 GDP data and the US non-farm payrolls report releasing concurrently, businesses and investors must closely monitor interest rate trajectories and foreign capital flows. Sustained FPI inflows in August indicate underlying confidence, but external factors like crude oil prices and global monetary policy shifts require cautious capital allocation strategies across sectors." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes