The Indian monsoon is showing signs of a quieter fortnight, influenced by a rapidly growing El Niño over the equatorial and east Pacific. According to the latest extended-range forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), overall rainfall across the country may remain below normal from August 20 to September 2.
This shift follows a period where the monsoon concentrated much of its energy over the eastern and northern parts of the country. The monsoon depression that previously anchored the rain-bearing system over East, North-East, Central, and North-West India has weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area. While it is expected to weaken further into a conventional low, its remnant cyclonic circulation is likely to linger over East India during the coming week, maintaining rainfall in parts of the region.
Despite the broader slowdown, the rain belt is experiencing a southward shift, bringing surprise relief to parts of Peninsular India and the South Peninsula. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal are slated to receive isolated heavy rain, while Kerala and Mahe anticipate isolated heavy rainfall alongside fairly widespread precipitation spanning four days. Coastal Karnataka is also positioned for a persistent wet spell, with widespread rain forecast over five days.
Looking ahead to the week beginning August 27, the weather pattern is expected to shift again. The IMD forecasts the western Himalayan region to become a primary focus for rainfall, bringing isolated heavy to very heavy rain to Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and isolated heavy rain to Jammu and Kashmir.
Simultaneously, East and North-East India will see light to moderate, fairly widespread rainfall, alongside intense spells featuring isolated heavy to very heavy downpours over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, West Bengal, Sikkim, and Odisha. The west coast will also see renewed activity, with Konkan, Goa, and Coastal Karnataka expecting widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls.
Ultimately, while the monsoon is losing some of its overall breadth under the El Niño shadow, it retains localized pockets of activity. The country heads into a below-normal rainfall fortnight, but hills, the east, north-east, and specific stretches of the southern and western peninsula will continue to experience active downpours.
"Fluctuations in seasonal rainfall driven by weather patterns like El Niño carry direct implications for agrarian economies, supply chains, and rural consumption patterns across India. Businesses operating in sectors dependent on agricultural output and rural demand must closely monitor these meteorological forecasts and plan their operational logistics and inventory cycles accordingly to navigate potential supply fluctuations effectively." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes
