Monsoon Deficit Rises to 13.2% Amid Ongoing Rains in East and North-East India

NEW DELHI: The ongoing monsoon season has recorded an all-India rain deficit of 13.2 percent for the period from June to August, according to the latest weather data. August, which is normally the second rainiest month, has seen lower rainfall figures under the larger El Nino impact.

Regionally, the South Peninsula logged the highest deficit at 23.1 percent. This was followed by Central India with a 16.5 percent deficit, East and North-East India at 13.5 percent, and North-West India recording a deficit of 9.7 percent. Overall, the country's cumulative rain deficit stood at 15.2 percent for August until Friday.

Despite the overall seasonal deficit, active weather systems are currently sustaining rainfall across parts of East and North-East India, as well as the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast. A rain-driving low-pressure area persists over north-east Madhya Pradesh, while the Bay of Bengal remains heavily clouded with a series of cyclonic circulations feeding moisture into the system.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), multiple weather systems are converging to keep the monsoon active rather than a single dominant system. Satellite imagery showed a rain footprint spreading across regions in Uttar Pradesh, New Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar. A separate vigorous belt stretched along the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast from Visakhapatnam to Brahmapur and Bhubaneswar.

The IMD has indicated that the north-eastern region remains on the monsoon radar, with isolated heavy rainfall expected over Arunachal Pradesh for five days, Assam and Meghalaya for six days, and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura for three days. Other areas bracing for heavy spells include the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Odisha.

In southern and western parts of the country, the monsoon remains active but unevenly distributed. Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe, and Lakshadweep are expected to receive fairly widespread rainfall over the coming week. Meanwhile, central Indian regions including West and East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh are also slated for wet spells, alongside coastal regions in Konkan and Goa.

"The wider monsoon deficit of 13.2 percent across the country highlights the macroeconomic vulnerabilities tied to weather patterns, particularly for agriculture and rural consumption-driven sectors. While localized rainfall provides relief to specific regions, businesses operating in supply chain, agri-tech, and consumer goods must monitor regional precipitation trends closely to manage inventory and operational risks effectively during the ongoing season." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes