Monsoon Remains Active in North and East India Despite Depression Weakening into Low-Pressure Area

A depression that was expected to fade over north Jharkhand sustained the monsoon pipeline across large swathes of northern, eastern, and northeastern India. Evening satellite maps showed thunderstorms blooming over coastal and interior Tamil Nadu, which is typical during an otherwise weak phase of the monsoon.

The system was positioned over north Jharkhand and adjoining south-west Bihar and south-east Uttar Pradesh. It was sustained by its proximity to a resourceful monsoon trough and secondary troughs, which continued to funnel moisture into the system and fuel rain mainly over the Himalayan foothills, adjoining plains of north-west India, and east and northeast India. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that the system weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area by Wednesday evening.

The IMD placed the well-marked low about 30 km north-northwest of Daltonganj in Jharkhand, 90 km east-southeast of Churk and 70 km southeast of Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh, 140 km north-northeast of Ambikapur in Chhattisgarh, and 210 km east of Sidhi in Madhya Pradesh. This weather activity occurs against the backdrop of a fresh seasonal signal from the APEC Climate Centre in Busan, South Korea, which has projected an enhanced probability of below-normal rainfall over India during September-November. The current depression and its likely successor over the Bay of Bengal may therefore offer only limited relief from the broader seasonal outlook.

For the South Peninsula, this trend could translate into normal to below-normal rainfall during the first half of the northeast monsoon in October-November. The APEC outlook points to above-normal rainfall over Central India during December-February 2027, while indicating neither a surplus nor deficit signal for the South Peninsula during the latter half of the northeast monsoon.

In the near term, the system is set to keep the monsoon active along the Himalayan foothills and adjoining plains. Isolated heavy rain is expected over Himachal Pradesh and Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh, East Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and West Uttar Pradesh. The rain belt will also impact Central India, with West Madhya Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh expecting heavy to very heavy rainfall over the coming days.

In the northeast, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam-Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura are in line for several days of heavy rain. East India remains firmly in the rain belt, with the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim, Bihar, and Odisha expecting heavy rainfall spells. Further west, fairly widespread rain is expected over Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada.

"Unpredicted weather patterns and prolonged monsoon activity significantly impact key economic sectors, particularly agriculture, supply chains, and rural consumption in India. Businesses operating in sectors sensitive to raw material availability and logistics must closely monitor meteorological updates and regional rainfall distributions to manage operational risks effectively and plan their inventories accordingly." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes