South-West Monsoon Likely to Remain Active Through Mid-September, Says IMD

NEW DELHI — The south-west monsoon is expected to remain active over several parts of the country well into September, according to the European Centre for Medium-Term Forecasts. Regions including Gujarat, south-east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, the adjoining west coast, and parts of East India are projected to experience active monsoon conditions until September 12.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest assessment, noted that a well-marked low-pressure area over north-east Madhya Pradesh is the dominant monsoon feature. While this system was expected to weaken and move west-north-west across south Uttar Pradesh and north Madhya Pradesh, meteorological experts emphasize that its weakening does not signal an immediate end to the monsoon activity.

A broad monsoon trough—the primary conduit for moisture and rainfall—stretches from Bhatinda and Rohtak through Hardoi and Kanpur, passing through the centre of the low-pressure system to Digha and onward into the east-central Bay of Bengal. Additionally, a secondary trough extends from north-west Uttar Pradesh to Bangladesh across the low-pressure area, Jharkhand, and West Bengal.

Further compounding these weather patterns is an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the north-east Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra. A trough extending from this circulation links the Arabian Sea weather system with the central Indian low-pressure area. Concurrently, an incoming western disturbance from Pakistan is crossing into west Gujarat, adding dynamical support to the region.

Together, these interconnected weather configurations provide the necessary moisture and atmospheric lift to maintain active rainfall over large parts of central and eastern India. Consequently, the immediate outlook points to spells of rain followed by a region-by-region retreat rather than an abrupt withdrawal.

The normal date for the onset of monsoon withdrawal is September 17. The crucial test for the retreat will occur after the Madhya Pradesh low-pressure system weakens. If the monsoon trough shifts south-east and dry continental air establishes itself over Rajasthan and North-West India, the withdrawal could gather pace. However, numerical model projections from the IMD suggest caution, as the present low-pressure system could be steered toward the Odisha-West Bengal coast by invading westerlies.

Furthermore, the western disturbance could potentially intensify into a low-pressure system over south-west Rajasthan, replacing the seasonal anticyclone typically associated with the onset of withdrawal. Forecasters are closely monitoring North-West India for signs of the monsoon trough pulling away toward the south-east or remaining entrenched across north India, alongside the potential development of a fresh low over the Bay of Bengal.

"Extended monsoon patterns can have a significant impact on various sectors, particularly agriculture, supply chains, and rural consumption across central and eastern India. Businesses operating in these regions must factor in potential logistical disruptions and shifting demand cycles as weather conditions remain active longer than the usual mid-September withdrawal timeline." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes