ASSOCHAM Study Highlights $1.5 Billion Wheat Export Opportunity for India Amid Global Market Shifts

A recent study by ASSOCHAM indicates that India has a strong opportunity to unlock over $1.5 billion in wheat exports. Driven by record production, comfortable central stocks, and favorable international pricing, the country is well-positioned to meet global demand as traditional supply routes face disruptions.

India has a strong base to emerge as a reliable global wheat supplier, unlocking an export opportunity of more than $1.5 billion, according to a study by the ASSOCHAM Global Research and Strategy Centre titled ‘India’s competitive edge in the global wheat market’.

The study points out that the global wheat market is currently undergoing changes due to weather disruptions, geopolitical tensions, fluctuating production, and higher freight costs. Specifically, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has impacted traditional supply routes, while extreme weather creates uncertainty for major producers such as the US, the European Union, Argentina, and Australia. According to USDA projections, global wheat production is expected to decline from a record 844 million tonnes in 2025-26 to around 819 million tonnes in 2026-27, while demand remains strong.

Domestically, India produced a record 121 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 crop year against an estimated domestic consumption of 111 million tonnes. Furthermore, wheat stocks in the Central pool stood at 51.3 million tonnes as of May 28, 2026, well above the prescribed buffer norm of 27.5 million tonnes for July 1. This comfortable supply position allows the country to scale up exports without compromising domestic food security.

The central government has also revised its policy, shifting export specifications for wheat varieties, wheat flour, and related products from 'Prohibited' to 'Free'. This includes items such as durum wheat, atta, maida, and semolina. Earlier this year, the government approved phased export allotments, including 2.5 million tonnes of wheat and 0.5 million tonnes of wheat products in February 2026, followed by an additional 2.5 million tonnes in April.

On the pricing front, the study notes that India maintains a competitive advantage. The FY2026-27 wheat minimum support price (MSP) stands at approximately $268 per tonne, compared to international wheat prices hovering around $303 per tonne in May 2026. This price difference allows Indian wheat to compete globally while continuing to provide assured returns to farmers.

Geographically, India benefits from shorter shipping distances and lower freight costs to major importing markets in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and West Asia, including countries like Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Algeria, and the Philippines. In 2021-22, when similar domestic surpluses and export permissions aligned, Indian wheat exports scaled up to 7.24 million tonnes, valued at $2.12 billion.

Increased exports are expected to enhance agricultural export earnings, provide better market opportunities for farmers, and encourage investments in supply chain infrastructure such as storage, transportation, testing, and certification.

"India's emergence as a reliable global wheat supplier presents a significant structural opportunity for the broader agricultural economy. With record production, robust buffer stocks, and favorable international pricing dynamics, the country can effectively bridge global supply deficits. Beyond immediate export earnings, this development will catalyze crucial private and public investments in storage, logistics, and supply chain infrastructure, ultimately integrating Indian agriculture more deeply into global trade value chains." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes