Aluminium Futures Maintain Bullish Trend Amid Narrow Consolidation

Aluminium futures, currently trading at ₹347 per kilogram, have spent nearly two weeks consolidating within a narrow price band. Despite the sideways movement, the contract continues to hold above key support levels, preserving a bullish trend that has been in place since early July.

The September futures contract has oscillated between ₹342 and ₹348 over the past fortnight. Crucially, the contract remains positioned above the ₹342 support level, where the 50-day moving average and a rising trendline coincide. Market data indicates that aluminium futures have established a higher base, which aligns with the positive price action observed over the last couple of months.

Analysts anticipate that the contract may soon initiate a fresh leg of the rally from current levels. The immediate target is projected within the ₹358 to ₹360 resistance band. A decisive breakout above ₹360 could potentially lift the contract further toward the ₹370 mark.

Conversely, downside risks remain should market conditions shift. If the support level at ₹342 is breached, the futures contract could decline toward the next support level at ₹335, with subsequent support identified further down at ₹327. Overall, however, current technical indicators suggest the broader uptrend is intact, maintaining a high probability of upward movement.

Trading positions established previously at ₹345 with a stop-loss at ₹338 are currently recommended to be held. Risk management strategies suggest adjusting stop-loss levels upward as the contract progresses: raising the stop-loss to ₹348 when the price reaches ₹351, moving it to ₹350 if prices touch ₹353, and shifting it to ₹352 when the contract hits ₹354. Long positions are targeted for exit at ₹356.

"Consolidation phases within a broader established uptrend often require strict adherence to risk management parameters rather than speculative trading. For businesses and investors dealing in commodities, watching key moving averages and established support thresholds like the ₹342 mark provides a clearer picture of market direction than short-term price fluctuations. Maintaining disciplined stop-loss strategies is essential to protect capital while navigating these technical trading ranges." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes