India Sees Decline in Reported Schools Despite Infrastructure Upgrades, EAC-PM Paper Finds

A working paper published by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) has reported a 5.4 percent decline in the number of reported schools in India since 2018-19. Despite this reduction in overall count, the data indicates that more schools have expanded to offer higher classes alongside improvements in basic infrastructure.

Authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Member of the EAC-PM and the 16th Finance Commission and Group Chief Economic Advisor at the State Bank of India, alongside economist Shashidharan Sharma, the paper notes that the number of reported schools fell from 15.51 lakh in 2018-19 to 14.67 lakh in 2025-26. Specifically, primary-only schools declined by 12.6 percent, moving from 8.27 lakh to 7.22 lakh. Conversely, institutions offering education up to Class XII grew by 29.7 percent, rising from 1.30 lakh to 1.69 lakh, while the total teacher count increased from 94.16 lakh to 1.03 crore.

The authors explain that administrative reclassifications account for a portion of the shifting figures. When a primary school is upgraded to include education up to Class VIII, it exits the primary-only category, which registers as a reduction in that specific bracket rather than an institutional closure. Additionally, changes in school codes can reflect mergers, changes in management, or record corrections.

Infrastructure metrics within the report show notable gains. Schools reporting electricity access rose from 76.7 percent to 95 percent, computer availability increased from 34.5 percent to 69.9 percent, and internet access moved from 18.7 percent to 67.4 percent. However, the authors note that these statistics measure availability rather than active functionality or regular student usage.

The study ties the evolving school network to shifting demographics and birth rates. India's fertility rate decreased from 2.1 in 2019 to 1.9 in 2024, and the population of children aged five to nine is projected to decline from 12.53 crore in 2011 to 11.27 crore in 2026 and 10.02 crore in 2036. Consequently, demand for primary schools is expected to contract in various regions, though at varying rates.

Enrolment trends also highlight geographical and structural shifts. Between 2012-13 and 2021-22, rural school enrolment fell by approximately 78 lakh, while urban school enrolment increased by around 93 lakh. During the same timeframe, the share of students enrolled in private unaided schools grew from 26.9 percent to 32.2 percent, whereas government school enrolment share declined from 58.4 percent to 54.9 percent.

Regional variations remain prominent. Out of 34 regions studied, seven—including Bihar—recorded growth in both enrolment and school numbers, while seven others like Rajasthan saw rising enrolment despite a drop in school count. In 11 regions, including Madhya Pradesh, both metrics declined, and in nine regions, including Tamil Nadu, enrolment decreased while school numbers rose.

Given these dynamics, the paper advises against applying a uniform national target for school closures or setting a fixed minimum student threshold for every institution, urging caution when consolidating schools with low enrolment.

"This EAC-PM working paper offers crucial macroeconomic insights into India's changing educational landscape. For stakeholders and entrepreneurs looking at the education sector, the data highlights a clear structural shift toward urban centers, private unaided schooling, and higher-level institutions driven by declining fertility rates. Policymakers and business builders alike must focus on these nuanced demographic shifts rather than relying on generalized assumptions about school closures." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes