USDA Post Projects India's 2026-27 Corn Production to Decline 10% Amid Weak Monsoon

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) local office in New Delhi has lowered its estimate for India's corn production for the 2026-27 period to 50 million tonnes. This reflects a decline of approximately 10 percent compared to the previous year, driven by lower sowing figures and reduced crop yields linked to a weak monsoon.

According to data from the Agriculture Ministry, India achieved a record corn production of 55 million tonnes during 2025-26, marking a 27 percent increase from the 43.4 million tonnes recorded in the preceding year, based on the ministry's third advance estimates.

Data as of August 28 indicates that corn planting dropped by around 4 percent to 89.99 lakh hectares, compared to 93.87 lakh hectares during the same period last year. The early weak monsoon in June delayed kharif corn planting by approximately two weeks. Furthermore, forecasts pointing to a weak monsoon in August and September, along with potential shortages in residual soil moisture, are expected to pose challenges for rabi and summer corn crops.

Field sources cited by the USDA Post note that the standing kharif corn crop is currently facing moisture stress across major growing regions in South and Peninsular India. The Post's latest Grain and Feed Update notes that while production is forecast at 50 million tonnes from 14 million hectares assuming normal weather, prolonged dry spells, or alternatively heavy rains and floods during the September harvest, could alter the kharif outlook.

State-level acreage data shows notable declines in key producing regions. In Karnataka, kharif corn acreage dropped 26 percent to 12.58 lakh hectares from 17 lakh hectares last year. Maharashtra saw an 11 percent decrease to 12.9 lakh hectares, Madhya Pradesh experienced a 2.22 percent decline to 26.4 lakh hectares, and Telangana recorded a 13 percent drop to 2.3 lakh hectares.

Conversely, certain states reported increases in corn acreage. Rajasthan saw a 9.85 percent rise to 9.76 lakh hectares, Gujarat increased by 3.59 percent to 2.71 lakh hectares, and Himachal Pradesh recorded a 3.67 percent increase to 2.54 lakh hectares.

Alongside the lower production projections, the USDA Post estimates consumption for the period at 51 million tonnes, marking an increase from the 48 million tonnes recorded in the previous year.

"Fluctuations in agricultural output directly impact supply chains, agribusiness margins, and rural economic stability. With corn consumption projected to outpace the revised production estimates, businesses dependent on raw grain supply will need to closely monitor input costs, inventory management, and price volatility across domestic markets in the coming quarters." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes