India’s Crude Oil Imports Projected to Reach Record 5.4 Million Barrels Per Day in October 2026

India’s crude oil imports are on track to hit a record high of 5.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) during October 2026, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. This growth is backed by a recovery in supply from West Asia and increasing arrivals from the Atlantic basin.

Russian crude arrivals on a month-to-date basis increased by approximately 100,000 b/d month-on-month to reach 1.97 mb/d in October. However, these volumes remain well below the peak of 2.82 mb/d recorded in July, noted Nikhil Dubey, Kpler’s lead analyst for refining.

Russia accounted for roughly 35 percent of India's total imports in October, down from 55 percent in July. Dubey anticipated that Russian flows could face additional downward pressure in November and December. Elevated freight costs are eroding the delivered-price advantage of Russian crude, while recovering West Asian supplies offer refiners increasingly competitive alternatives.

West Asian producers are positioning more aggressively to defend market share. They are offering competitive pricing on a delivered-at-port (DAP) basis, which potentially narrows the economic advantage historically held by Russian crude. Delivered cargoes also help reduce refiners' direct exposure to freight market volatility compared to independently chartered shipments.

Middle Eastern arrivals stood at approximately 2.3 mb/d in October, compared to 2.7 mb/d in September, with Saudi Arabia leading regional supplies, followed by Iraq. To offset the decline in Middle Eastern arrivals, Atlantic Basin barrels increased significantly. West of Suez crude arrivals doubled to around 1.2 mb/d in October from 0.6 mb/d in September. Angola recorded the largest increase, with volumes rising to 282,000 b/d from 36,000 b/d in September, followed by Venezuela.

Commenting on the rising supply from West Asia, Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s lead research analyst for refining and modeling, noted that the recovery has been supported by higher flows from Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Ship-to-ship transfers and other logistical arrangements have helped facilitate these flows, enabling Indian refiners to rebuild Middle Eastern purchases as regional supply availability improves.

According to market traders, the United Arab Emirates has used Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) since late May and early June to shuttle crude out of the Strait of Hormuz using the Oman channel. The crude is subsequently transferred to other vessels via ship-to-ship transfers, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq utilizing a similar strategy. Ritolia also highlighted that African and Venezuelan barrels are further contributing to the broader diversification of India’s crude oil import slate.

"The shift in India's crude oil import basket highlights the dynamic nature of global energy procurement and supply chain management. As freight costs impact the pricing advantages of specific regions, Indian refiners are successfully leveraging supply diversification across West Asia and the Atlantic basin. This strategic flexibility ensures energy security and cost optimization, which are critical operational factors for large-scale industrial consumers and the broader economy." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes