Survey Shows Indian American Voter Preferences Reverting to Democrats Ahead of US Midterms

Support for the Republican Party among Indian Americans, which saw notable gains during the 2024 elections, has largely reversed ahead of the US midterm elections. According to the Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) released on Monday, voter preferences are shifting back toward the Democratic Party.

The survey, conducted in October 2026 by Carnegie in partnership with research firm YouGov, found that 62 percent of Indian American citizens intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in their Congressional district. Meanwhile, 19 percent intend to vote for the Republican candidate, with the remaining respondents undecided or not intending to vote.

In comparison, pre-election figures in 2024 showed 62 percent of Indian Americans preferring the Democrats and 30 percent favoring the Republican presidential candidate. In 2020, the preference split stood at 68 to 22 percent in favor of the Democrats.

Authored by Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, Annabel Miller, Andy Robaina, and Milan Vaishnav, the nationally representative online survey of 1,000 Indian American adults indicates that broad disapproval of current policies has influenced voter sentiment. By early 2026, large majorities of Indian Americans expressed disapproval of the administration's handling of immigration, the domestic economy, international economic policy, and U.S.-India relations.

The survey authors noted a nuance in the polling data, pointing out that previous IAAS surveys measured voter preferences in presidential elections, whereas the October 2026 survey focuses on congressional voting intentions.

The data also highlights the role of negative partisanship in the upcoming midterms. More than one-third, or 35 percent, of respondents planning to vote for Democrats stated that their vote is primarily motivated by opposition to the Republican candidate.

Demographic breakdowns within the survey show declines in Republican support across various groups. Among older Indian American men aged 40 and older, support for the Republican candidate stands at 16 percent, down from 32 percent who supported Donald Trump in January 2026. Among younger men aged 18 to 39, support is at 23 percent, compared to 40 percent in 2024. Older women also showed Republican support dropping to 16 percent.

The survey places these findings in a broader demographic context, noting that Black Americans remain the most supportive demographic of the Democratic Party, with 76 percent indicating they will vote for Democratic congressional candidates and 12 percent favoring Republicans.

"Shifting political landscapes and voter sentiment directly impact macroeconomic policies, consumer confidence, and business environments. For businesses and investors with cross-border interests between the US and India, monitoring demographic voting patterns and political shifts provides critical visibility into future regulatory and economic directions. Understanding these shifts helps organizations anticipate policy changes related to immigration, trade, and international relations." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes