Anthropic’s Upcoming Mega-IPO Creates Scheduling Bottleneck for US Listings

Anthropic PBC’s upcoming initial public offering is casting a shadow over US listing plans as companies navigate a packed calendar following the September 7 Labor Day holiday. The Claude developer is preparing to file publicly for an IPO expected to raise as much as or more than SpaceX’s record $86.2-billion debut.

Companies and their backers are finding it difficult to secure the attention of long-term investors and sovereign wealth funds given the imminent prospect of the Anthropic listing. This dynamic mirrors the period leading up to SpaceX’s debut, when 14 sizable companies rushed to go public in the prior month. Those hurried entries yielded a weighted average loss of 9.5%, according to Bloomberg data.

The scheduling window is further restricted by November’s mid-term elections, a mid-September Federal Reserve meeting, and hotter-than-expected inflation data. Rob Stowe, head of Americas equity capital markets at Barclays Plc, noted that activity will be concentrated into a few tight windows.

Firms briefing money managers in recent weeks are heavily concentrated around artificial intelligence and infrastructure themes. Cloud computing firm Nscale has joined Anthropic in the queue, while Oura Health Oy, a maker of smart health and fitness rings, may raise billions of dollars as soon as next month. Power and energy infrastructure providers, including Aggreko Plc, CoVolt Power Inc., SoftBank-backed SB Energy, and Roark Capital-owned Inspire Brands Inc., are also evaluating timelines ahead of November.

Meanwhile, Switch Inc. filed confidentially for a listing that could take place in November, following a funding round that pointed toward a valuation approaching $50 billion including debt.

Despite strong interest in AI-themed assets, bankers caution that non-thematic issuers face a more challenging environment. Eddie Molloy, co-head of global equity capital markets at Morgan Stanley, noted that smaller or mid-cap issuers outside major trends like AI infrastructure, aerospace, and defense struggle to attract buyside focus. J.D. Moriarty of Bank of America added that smaller companies must exercise caution as the market tends toward indifference amid a wave of mega deals.

Broader market performance for recent US listings shows a weighted-average return of 5.6% this year, trailing the S&P 500's 13% return and the Nasdaq 100's 17% gain. Larger deals have experienced mixed after-market results; shares of the 16 companies raising at least $1 billion are up 4.2% on a weighted-average basis, with six of the ten biggest deals trading below their offer price. SpaceX and SK Hynix have both seen choppy trading following their debuts.

Nevertheless, a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 from July lows is encouraging companies to proceed. Doug Adams, global co-head of equity capital markets at Citigroup Inc., expects several firms to raise over a billion dollars each between Labor Day and the elections as companies weigh their individual timelines against market conditions.

"The concentration of capital around mega-themes like artificial intelligence creates a challenging environment for smaller issuers trying to capture investor attention. When a market-dominating IPO like Anthropic looms, scheduling becomes a critical strategic decision for any company entering the public markets. Founders and backers must carefully assess whether market timing aligns with their fundamental readiness, rather than simply rushing to beat a competitor's window." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes