IMD Forecasts Heavy Rainfall Across Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Amid Ongoing Monsoon Deficit

NEW DELHI — Satellite imagery from Tuesday morning indicates convective clouds and rain activity over parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, off the Chennai coast, and sections of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Heavy to very heavy rainfall was reported from isolated locations across Assam and Meghalaya from Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

A prevailing low-pressure area remains anchored over West Bengal, Jharkhand, and north Odisha. According to meteorological observations, this system is projected to move north-west across Jharkhand and north Odisha until Wednesday. Heavy rainfall was also recorded at select locations over Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, and Mahe.

While low-pressure systems embedded over land in East and North-East India do not typically deliver heavy rain to Kerala directly, weather experts note an indirect influence. The system acts as a remote switch, strengthening the south-westerly monsoon flow across the Arabian Sea and funneling moisture toward Kerala, where the Western Ghats force the moisture-laden air upward.

For Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy to very heavy rain over Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Heavy rainfall is also predicted for Arunachal Pradesh, other North-Eastern States, the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Bihar, Jharkhand, East Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal.

Additionally, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds are expected over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal.

Beyond the immediate 24-hour weather forecast, attention has turned to whether this late-season burst of rain across East and North-East India, the South Peninsula, and parts of North-West and Central India can impact the accumulated monsoon deficit, which stood at 13 percent as of Monday.

The situation highlights the complex dynamics of September weather during an El Niño year. Historical data indicates varying outcomes in El Niño years since 1997, ranging from a marginal +0.2 percent rainfall departure in 1997 to a -20.9 percent deficit in 2002, -12.7 percent in 2015, and -5.3 percent in 2023. This year, El Niño became established in July following a damaged rainfall balance in June.

While July saw manageable conditions, August recorded a double-digit deficit. This leaves September as the final substantial window for the monsoon to recover, even as the season begins its retreat from north-west India. The IMD notes that the inverse relationship between El Niño and the Indian monsoon tends to strengthen during the latter half of the season, leaving the extent of September rainfall critical to the final seasonal arithmetic.

"Weather patterns and seasonal rainfall distributions play a critical role in shaping the broader economic landscape, particularly impacting agrarian supply chains, rural consumption, and regional business activities across India. While short-term meteorological forecasts indicate relief in specific regions, businesses with exposure to agriculture and consumer goods must closely monitor how late-season rainfall and ongoing deficit trends evolve through September." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes