IMD Forecasts Normal to Above-Normal November Rainfall in Key Wheat Regions

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast normal to above-normal rainfall in parts of central and north-west India during November, marking the primary wheat-sowing period. This projection offers relief to farmers following a deficient rainfall period in October.

IMD Director-General M Mohapatra stated during a virtual press conference that below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country. Exceptions include areas in central, north-west, and north-east India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is anticipated. Overall rainfall for November is expected to remain below 77 per cent of the long-period average of 29.7 mm.

The November forecast indicates normal to above-normal rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, alongside adjoining parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat, as well as East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Conversely, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. However, these latter regions maintain almost fully irrigated wheat acreage, which limits the impact of the deficiency.

Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall in Rajasthan and much of Gujarat could negatively affect rabi crop prospects, given that several areas in these states lack assured irrigation. Former Agriculture Commissioner JS Sandhu had previously noted that November rainfall remains crucial for normal rabi sowing.

The IMD also forecast below-normal rainfall over the South Peninsula, covering Tamil Nadu, Puducherry-Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala, Mahe, and south interior Karnataka. Rainfall in this region is projected to be less than 77 per cent of its long-period average of 118.7 mm. Mohapatra added that the strong El Nino prevailing in the Pacific Ocean may continue until December, with its intensity expected to gradually decline during January-March.

The forecast follows substantial rainfall deficits recorded across the country in October. East Rajasthan reported a 25 per cent deficit, West Rajasthan faced a 63 per cent shortfall, and East and West Madhya Pradesh recorded deficits of 71 per cent and 82 per cent, respectively. The Gujarat region, Saurashtra and Kutch, and Madhya Maharashtra reported deficits of 99 per cent, 87 per cent, and 95 per cent, respectively. Overall, the country's rainfall deficit narrowed from 48 per cent on October 28 to 31 per cent by October 31, driven by rains associated with a cyclone over the Bay of Bengal and a western disturbance.

Temperatures during October reached historic highs. The all-India average maximum temperature reached 32.43 degrees Celsius, the highest since 1901, while the mean temperature stood at 26.63 degrees Celsius, marking the third highest for October since 1901. For November, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, apart from areas along the Himalayan foothills.

Against this backdrop, the government has established a foodgrain production target of 177.72 million tonnes for the 2026-27 crop year, which includes 121 million tonnes of wheat. Additional rabi targets include 12.33 million tonnes of gram, 2.1 million tonnes of lentils, 14.3 million tonnes of mustard, and 2.42 million tonnes of barley.

"Weather patterns and monsoon regularity directly dictate agricultural output and rural purchasing power in India, which in turn impacts broader macroeconomic stability and agribusiness supply chains. While well-irrigated wheat belts can absorb localized rainfall deficits, sectors dependent on unassured irrigation remain vulnerable to shifting climate cycles. Businesses operating in the agri-value chain must closely monitor these meteorological updates and government production targets when planning supply inventories and operational logistics for the upcoming rabi season." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes