IMF Chief Cites AI Investment Boom and Energy Reserves as Buffers Against Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock

NEW YORK — The global economy is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between a negative supply shock from West Asia and a positive demand shock driven by artificial intelligence, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Speaking to journalists ahead of the G-20 finance ministerial meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, Georgieva noted that the global economy has weathered the energy shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz "better than feared." This resilience is attributed to a combination of drawdowns in oil and gas reserves, increases in non-Gulf supply, and tailwinds from an ongoing AI investment boom.

"What started out as a US phenomenon with AI is now becoming a growth engine for the global economy, with other countries ramping up construction of data centres and other infrastructure," Georgieva said, highlighting strong corporate earnings and consumer demand in the United States.

However, the IMF chief warned that the net impact of these competing forces remains asymmetric across countries, depending heavily on individual exposures to energy disruptions, macroeconomic vulnerabilities, and positions in the AI value chain. Overall risks to the economic outlook remain tilted to the downside amid high uncertainty.

Mounting fiscal pressures, reflected in rising bond yields and a stalled disinflation process, continue to be primary concerns for markets and policymakers. Georgieva pointed out that shrinking oil and gas reserves, coupled with the upcoming northern hemisphere winter, mean the energy shock is far from over. A renewed rise in oil prices could potentially fuel inflation and force central banks to maintain restrictive policy stances, affecting debt service and economic activity.

The future trajectory of artificial intelligence also carries uncertainties, including potential risks to financial stability and a widening gap between economies. Developing nations face distinct challenges, including the risk of falling behind on AI adoption. Additionally, low-income countries dependent on fuel imports are described as being in a difficult position, with disruptions in oil, gas, and fertilizer supplies threatening food security, a situation that could be exacerbated by extreme weather.

In July, the IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3 percent, citing downside risks from the West Asia conflict, trade fragmentation, and uncertainties surrounding artificial intelligence. The institution is scheduled to release its next growth outlook revision in mid-October during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.

"The observation by the IMF highlights how technology infrastructure, particularly artificial intelligence, is currently acting as a macroeconomic shock absorber alongside traditional energy reserves. For businesses and technology startups, this dynamic underscores the global scale of digital infrastructure spending. However, founders must remain cautious of macroeconomic volatility, rising yields, and potential energy price fluctuations that could impact capital availability and operational costs across markets in the near term." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes