Indian Diesel Exports Reach 12-Month High in October Driven by Global Supply Shortages

India’s diesel exports climbed to 2.90 million tonnes in October 2026, marking the highest level recorded in the last one year. The growth was driven by an acute shortage of diesel globally, which aided Indian refiners in capturing international supply crunches.

According to data from Kpler, diesel shipments from India hit 700,000 barrels per day (b/d) last month, compared to 620,000 b/d in September. This performance represents the highest export volume since September 2025.

The jump in October exports is attributed to three primary factors. First, Indian refineries operated at record highs above 100 per cent utilisation, aided by limited maintenance this year beyond a few turnarounds and unplanned outages. Second, large, complex export-focused refineries tilted their yields toward max-diesel operations. Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, noted that their scale and export infrastructure make it straightforward to supply Asia, Africa, Europe, and the United States.

Third, elevated diesel cracks made exports highly profitable, while continued access to competitively priced crude, including Russian barrels, further supported refining economics. Ritolia pointed out that high utilisation and limited maintenance allowed refiners to maximise throughput and push more barrels into the export market.

On a macro level, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that continued disruptions to Middle East exports, compounded by lower supply from Russia and some Asian countries, cut global diesel and gasoil availability by 1.5 mb/d in the second quarter of 2026 and 1.7 mb/d in the third quarter compared to the previous year. This placed diesel markets under extreme pressure.

Additionally, a commentary published by the Federal Bank of Dallas in October noted that global refinery capacity declined by as much as 10 per cent—roughly 8 million b/d—due to several compounding factors. These included the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi rebel attacks on Red Sea shipping, damaged Middle East refineries, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, and export restrictions implemented by China and Russia.

Looking ahead, Kpler anticipates that Indian diesel exports will remain strong. Refinery runs are projected to hold steady around 5.6 to 5.7 mb/d with no major maintenance planned, enabling refiners to maintain high utilisation and strong output.

However, an offsetting factor remains domestic demand. Seasonal strength—including the festive season, freight activity, and agricultural demand—alongside stable retail prices, is expected to keep domestic diesel consumption firm. This domestic absorption is anticipated to cap further export growth, leading analysts to view October as the high point for the year.

"The surge in India's diesel exports highlights the country's robust refining capacity and strategic agility in responding to international supply chain disruptions. When global markets face structural deficits and geopolitical bottlenecks, large-scale domestic refiners are well-positioned to capture high-margin export opportunities. However, as domestic consumption remains resilient due to seasonal and industrial demand, balancing local supply requirements with export profitability will remain a key operational focus for the sector moving forward." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes