New Low-Pressure Area Forms Over Bay of Bengal, Sustaining Rainfall Across Regions

A fresh low-pressure area has formed over the north-west Bay of Bengal on Sunday morning, extending an ongoing series of tropical disturbances originating from the western Pacific and South China Sea. Satellite observations indicate multiple tropical systems—including Typhoon Saudel, Tropical Storm Narra, and a tropical depression—moving westward across Indochina and influencing monsoon behavior over the Bay of Bengal.

Meteorological data indicates that the Pacific Ocean remains exceptionally warm, fueled in part by the El Niño pattern. This warmth has continuously generated tropical disturbances that travel westward, subsequently revitalized by the monsoon circulation over the Bay. Tropical Storm Narra, lingering near the Vietnam coast, is expected to help channel further inbound circulations through the week, while Typhoon Saudel has tracked towards the Taipei-east China coast sector after briefly reaching category-3 strength.

Domestically, the monsoon trough currently stretches from Ferozpur through Karnal, Bareilly, Lucknow, and Ranchi, passing through the center of the new low-pressure area over the north-west Bay. A secondary trough extends from the Bay low's cyclonic circulation toward east Uttar Pradesh through Jharkhand and north Chhattisgarh, while a western disturbance and an upper-air cyclonic circulation over north Haryana contribute to overall atmospheric moisture and instability.

In response to these weather patterns, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a broad and prolonged rainfall outlook across several regions:

Odisha and Chhattisgarh: Odisha is projected to receive isolated very heavy rain for the next six days, while Chhattisgarh faces similar conditions, with heavy to very heavy rainfall expected across several days.

North-East India: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura are anticipated to receive isolated heavy rainfall periodically over the six-day outlook.

Southern Peninsula: Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal are expected to see isolated heavy rain early in the week. Kerala, Mahe, and Telangana are forecasted to receive heavy rain for three days starting Sunday, with Coastal Andhra Pradesh facing isolated very heavy rainfall.

Western and Central Regions: Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep are forecasted to experience fairly widespread to widespread rain over the next six days. West and East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh are also in line for isolated heavy rainfall.

Northern Region: Uttarakhand faces six days of isolated heavy rain, while Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh are expected to experience widespread rainfall.

"Changes in weather patterns and prolonged monsoon spells have a direct operational impact on multiple sectors, particularly agriculture, supply chain logistics, and regional commerce across India. Businesses and enterprises operating in affected states must factor these extended rainfall forecasts into their operational planning and risk management strategies to minimize potential disruptions." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes