TNAU Forecasts Groundnut Prices at ₹65-70 per kg for Upcoming Harvest Season

Groundnut prices during the upcoming harvest season are expected to range between ₹65 and ₹70 per kg, according to a pre-sowing price forecast issued by the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) operating under the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU).

The price projection is derived from an analysis of historical groundnut prices recorded at the Tindivanam and Sevur regulated markets over the past 25 years, complemented by a recent market survey. In light of these projections, TNAU has advised farmers to consider this price outlook when making their sowing decisions for the season.

At the national level, India maintains its position as the world's second-largest groundnut producer. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, the country harvested 119.42 lakh tonnes of groundnuts from 57.62 lakh hectares during the 2024-25 period, achieving a productivity rate of 2,073 kg per hectare. Furthermore, the total area cultivated under the crop has increased by 3.17 percent for the 2025-26 cycle. Despite this expansion in acreage, trade sources anticipate that market arrivals may see a decline due to recent fluctuations in the monsoon.

At the state level, Tamil Nadu remains a significant contributor to national production. During the 2024-25 season, the state recorded 3.15 lakh hectares under groundnut cultivation, yielding a total production of 7.69 lakh tonnes with a productivity of 2,439 kg per hectare. Major groundnut-growing districts in Tamil Nadu include Thiruvannamalai, Namakkal, Villupuram, Salem, Cuddalore, and Ariyalur.

While the crop is cultivated year-round depending on local rainfall and water availability, primary sowing is concentrated between the months of June and August across most districts. Within the state, groundnut is primarily utilized for oil extraction, while its residual oilcake serves as an important high-protein feed for livestock. Additionally, the crop is consumed directly and finds application in various confectionery products.

"Price forecasting models play a critical role in agricultural economics by helping producers manage market volatility and plan their sowing cycles more effectively. With trade sources anticipating potential supply shifts due to monsoon fluctuations, data-backed insights like the one provided by TNAU allow farmers and agribusinesses to make informed commercial decisions rather than relying solely on reactive pricing during harvest." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes