India Faces Closing Window for Demographic Dividend as Experts Urge Reassessment of Population Policies

NEW DELHI — India has a limited window to benefit from its demographic dividend, and that window is steadily closing, according to demographic experts and recent judicial observations. The Supreme Court recently noted that laws penalising individuals for having more than two children have largely lost their significance, as the foundational fear of overpopulation has shifted due to demographic changes over the past few decades.

Data indicates that India's total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped significantly from 3 to 1.9 since 2003. According to projections by policy organizations, India's working-age share is expected to peak at approximately 66 percent in 2031 before beginning to decline. While the population will continue to grow for some decades due to demographic momentum, the underlying age structure is shifting toward an older demographic.

Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India, noted that the country faces the dual challenge of reaping the remaining demographic dividend while preparing for an ageing society. Muttreja emphasized that economic futures rely heavily on bringing more women into the workforce, alongside building robust social security and care systems for older citizens. She added that fertility in India declined through personal choice rather than coercion, pointing out that experiences from other nations like China demonstrate that coercive measures are unnecessary and counterproductive.

Furthermore, experts pointed out that state-level two-child norms—often tied to eligibility for local body elections and government benefits—lack credible evidence of altering fertility behavior. Studies show that fertility rates fell at similar rates in states without such policies. Instead, these norms have reportedly resulted in harmful consequences, disproportionately disqualifying women, Dalits, Adivasis, and poorer families, alongside instances of family desertion and sex-selective abortions.

Seema Bhaskaran, a gender expert at Transform Rural India, stated that historical population policies have instrumentalised women's bodies through stringent measures. Bhaskaran highlighted that India remains relatively underprepared to address the demands of an ageing population, which will see rising life expectancy increase the demand for pensions, healthcare, and long-term care as the proportion of young workforce entrants gradually reduces.

Experts have called for population policies to be aligned with the respective cultural, economic, and social contexts of different states, focusing instead on reproductive justice, expanding healthcare choices, skilling the youth, and supporting meaningful workforce participation.

"As business leaders and entrepreneurs, we must closely monitor these shifting demographic trends. The transition toward an ageing population and a peaking working-age share by 2031 will fundamentally alter consumer markets, workforce availability, and operational strategies. Businesses must start planning for future labor dynamics, investing in automation, and creating inclusive environments that support workforce longevity and female participation. Sustainable business growth requires anticipating these structural shifts rather than reacting to them after they occur." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes