India’s Crude Oil Imports Reach Record High in October, Driven by West Asian and Russian Supplies

India's crude oil imports reached a record high of approximately 5.6 million barrels per day in October. Data from energy intelligence firm Kpler indicates that refiners stepped up their purchases from both West Asia and Russia despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Supplies from West Asia accounted for about 2.3 million barrels per day during the month, while Russian crude flows remained steady at around 2 million barrels per day. The recovery in Gulf supplies during September and October was supported by higher ship-to-ship transfers that helped move more crude through the Strait of Hormuz, providing Indian refiners with greater flexibility in their sourcing strategies.

However, market conditions may shift in the coming months. According to Kpler lead analyst Nikhil Dubey, Russian shipments could moderate in November and December as attacks in the Black Sea drive up freight rates. This increase in transportation costs makes those barrels less competitive on a landed-cost basis. At the same time, Gulf suppliers have been offering competitive delivered prices in an effort to regain market share in India.

Despite potential fluctuations in freight rates, procurement decisions remain adaptable. Any renewed disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz could prompt Indian refiners to return to Russian crude, even if transportation costs rise. Additionally, the October 16 waiver under the Graham Act may ease concerns among certain Indian buyers regarding the risks associated with purchasing Russian oil, thereby offering additional flexibility in procurement.

India imports nearly 90 percent of its crude oil requirements, making the availability and landed cost of alternative supplies critical to refinery economics. The choice between Russian and West Asian barrels continues to be driven primarily by commercial considerations and supply security rather than geopolitics alone.

Global oil trade flows were significantly altered following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which led Western countries to impose sanctions, an EU ban on seaborne Russian crude, and a G7 price cap. As European buyers moved away from Russian oil, Moscow offered steep discounts to attract alternative markets. India emerged as a major buyer during this period, sharply increasing its imports from negligible levels before the war to as much as 40 to 50 percent of its crude basket at their peak, drawn by price advantages such as Russian Urals trading around $30 a barrel below Brent in late 2022 and early 2023.

Although those steep discounts have largely vanished, Indian refiners have continued to utilize Russian barrels to offset supply disruptions from West Asia. The evolving dynamics between freight costs, regional supply stability, and commercial pricing will continue to shape India's import patterns in the near term.

"India's heavy reliance on imported crude makes supply chain agility and cost management critical for domestic refiners. As freight rates fluctuate and regional tensions impact trade routes, businesses must maintain flexibility in their procurement strategies. Commercial viability, logistics security, and landed costs will ultimately dictate operational decisions in the energy sector, balancing global market volatility with domestic economic stability." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes