Andhra Pradesh Coast Faces Second Severe Cyclone as IMD Issues Weather Warning

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning that a deep depression over the south-east Bay of Bengal is gathering strength and is forecast to intensify twice over into a severe cyclone. The system is expected to make landfall along the south Andhra Pradesh coast by Tuesday.

As of Sunday morning, the parent deep depression was moving west-northwest at a speed of 22 km/hr. At midnight, it was located approximately 830 km east-southeast of Chennai, 880 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 900 km south-east of Machilipatnam, and 950 km east-southeast of Ongole. Global weather models have also classified the system as a deep depression and are tracking it under the provisional designation 04B.

According to the IMD trajectory, the depression is expected to intensify into a deep depression over the south-west and adjoining south-east Bay by noon, and further into a cyclone over the south-west and adjoining west-central Bay by midnight. It is projected to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay by Monday.

The storm, to be officially named Murasu, is expected to move towards the west-central Bay, off the south Andhra Pradesh coast, by the early hours of Tuesday. It is forecast to cross the coast as a severe cyclone along a 375-km stretch between Nellore and Narsapur, packing sustained winds of 100-110 km/hr and gusting up to 120 km/hr.

Murasu will be the second cyclone over the Bay during the ongoing north-east monsoon season. Its approach poses challenges for coastal Andhra Pradesh, as the region is still dealing with the aftermath of cyclone Arnab, which made landfall near Narsapur on October 28. Murasu is expected to hit just south of Narsapur, threatening areas immediately south of those previously battered.

Meteorological data indicates favourable oceanic and atmospheric conditions for the storm's intensification. Sea-surface temperatures of 29-30°C provide oceanic heat and moisture, while low to moderate easterly vertical wind shear helps maintain the system's vertical structure. A favourable upper-level outflow environment is also supporting further intensification.

In response to the approaching system, the IMD has forecast an expanding zone of heavy to extremely heavy rainfall. Coastal Andhra Pradesh faces the primary threat, with heavy rainfall expected at isolated places on Sunday, increasing to heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places on Monday. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places on Tuesday.

Additionally, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and south Odisha are expected to experience substantial rainfall over the coming days, with varying intensities of light to heavy downpours forecasted through Wednesday.

"Natural disasters and severe weather events create immediate operational hurdles for businesses, supply chains, and local economies, particularly in coastal regions still recovering from previous storms. For enterprises operating in areas like coastal Andhra Pradesh, proactive business continuity planning and robust risk management frameworks are essential to mitigate economic disruption and protect infrastructure during such severe environmental challenges." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes