TNAU Forecasts Cotton Prices at ₹75-80/kg for Upcoming Harvest Season

Good-quality cotton prices are expected to range between ₹75 and ₹80 per kilogram during the upcoming harvest season, according to a pre-sowing price forecast released by the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU). The forecast is based on an analysis of historical cotton prices recorded at the Moolanur regulated market over the past 20 years. Following the release of these projections, TNAU has advised farmers to incorporate this pricing data when making their sowing decisions.

India maintains a significant position in the global agricultural sector, ranking first globally in cotton acreage and second in both production and consumption. Data from the Second Advance Estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare for 2025-26 indicates that cotton was cultivated across 114.82 lakh hectares. Total production is estimated at 49.455 lakh tonnes, with a national productivity rate of 431 kg per hectare.

The major cotton-producing states across the country include Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. In Tamil Nadu specifically, cotton cultivation covered 1.02 lakh hectares in 2024-25, yielding 3.80 lakh tonnes with a productivity of 350 kg per hectare. Major cotton-growing districts within the state include Tiruvarur, Virudhunagar, Mayiladuthurai, Ramanathapuram, Tiruchirappalli, and Salem, with Bt hybrids, Varalakshmi, and Suvin serving as the primary cultivated varieties.

Despite these baseline projections, trade sources note that actual market prices may fluctuate. Variations will depend heavily on the performance of the southwest monsoon and the volume of market arrivals from other major cotton-growing states. Additionally, TNAU has flagged the potential impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon on the monsoon season, which could subsequently influence final market prices.

As a prominent global producer and exporter, India imports less than 10 per cent of its total domestic consumption requirements. These imports are primarily directed toward meeting specific quality requirements demanded by the domestic textile industry.

"Price forecasting models driven by historical data play a critical role in helping farmers and agribusinesses mitigate market volatility. When institutions like TNAU provide pre-sowing estimates based on long-term market trends, it allows agricultural producers to plan their crop selection and resource allocation more effectively. For businesses operating within the textile and agricultural supply chains, tracking these regional yield estimates and climate risks such as El Niño is essential for strategic inventory and pricing management." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes