IMD Issues Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh and Odisha as Bay of Bengal System Intensifies

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported that a potentially powerful cyclone is brewing over the Bay of Bengal, with formation anticipated by Monday. A parent low-pressure area emerged over the south-east and adjoining east-central Bay on Friday morning, setting off weather alerts across coastal regions.

According to meteorological projections, the system is expected to move west-north-westwards, intensifying into a deep depression by Sunday. It is forecast to become a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay by Monday morning before heading towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts over the subsequent two days. Global models indicate the system could reach at least severe cyclonic storm intensity.

Simultaneously, a separate low-pressure area is active over the south-east Arabian Sea, off the south Kerala coast. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts previously suggested that the Arabian Sea low and the developing Bay cyclone could interact and feed off each other to strengthen both systems. However, the IMD has outlined an alternative scenario wherein strong south-westerly flows steer the Arabian Sea low back across the South Peninsula toward the south-west Bay, potentially merging with the cyclone and providing another powerful burst to the north-east monsoon next week.

The current weather activity marks a notable recovery for regions that experienced rainfall stress during the south-west monsoon season between June and September. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal have recorded a stellar performance in October. After moving into surplus territory with 23 per cent more rainfall than normal during the first 21 days of the month, the surplus surged to 109.3 per cent between October 15 and 21 following the onset of the north-east monsoon.

The IMD has forecast normal to above-normal rainfall across the subdivision from October 22 to November 4, with another low-pressure system possible in the wake of the cyclone. Other regions have experienced mixed fortunes. Coastal Karnataka swung from a 33 per cent deficit between October 1 and 21 to an 83 per cent surplus during October 15–21, while South Interior Karnataka turned a 39 per cent deficit into a 58 per cent surplus.

Conversely, some areas continue to face deficits. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam improved from a 71 per cent deficit to 33 per cent, and North Interior Karnataka trimmed its shortfall from 88 per cent to 66 per cent. Lakshadweep saw its deficit widen from 31 per cent to 72 per cent, while Kerala and Mahe improved to an 11 per cent deficit, bringing rainfall closer to normal levels.

As these multiple weather systems converge, analysts and agricultural stakeholders are monitoring whether the incoming rain surge can sustain agricultural benefits without the disruptive impacts of severe winds and heavy downpours.

"Weather patterns and monsoon performance directly impact agricultural output, supply chains, and rural consumption across India. While the recent rainfall surplus provides much-needed relief to regions previously facing deficits, businesses and logistics operators in coastal areas must factor in potential disruptions from the developing cyclone in the Bay of Bengal." — Dr. Shishir Gupta, Founder & CEO, StartupLanes